Opinion: The Big Lie takes a Big Hit
SOS Raffensperger leads Dem opponent by double-digits
At around this time last year, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger’s campaign for re-election appeared to be over before it could even begin.
He had become a pariah in the eyes of former President Donald Trump for rejecting his demands to overturn President Joe Biden’s victory.
He was facing what many thought was going to be a tough primary challenge from U.S. Rep. Jody Hice.
Fast forward to roughly 100 days from election day: Raffensperger is not only the Republican nominee. He is entering the general election with a huge lead lead over his Democratic rival.
After thwarting Hice’s Trump-backed primary challenge, a new poll this week found the incumbent leading his Democratic challenger by a double-digit margin.
The University of Georgia survey of 902 likely voters found Raffensperger polling at 46%. State Rep. Bee Nguyen, his Democratic opponent, is at 32%. The race is not nearly as close as the contests for governor and U.S. Senate, which are both hovering in or around the margin of error.
His lead can be partly attributed to crossover support from Democratic voters. 16% of Democrats say that they plan to cross party lines in the Secretary of State race. By contrast, the same survey found Gov. Brian Kemp (R) earning less than 3% of Democrats. Many liberals and moderates have applauded Raffensperger for standing up to the Trump campaign.
Raffensperger, as we all know by now, was on the receiving end of a phone call from President Donald Trump in January 2021, in which the defeated President frantically urged the Republican elections chief to “find” enough votes so that he could win Georgia.
Since then, the former President and his campaign have been involved in a criminal investigation in Fulton County. Raffensperger has been a cooperating witness, and he has also testified before the congressional panel that is probing the January 6 Capitol riot.
Despite drawing Trump’s ire, Raffensperger notched an outright victory over Hice in the May primary election and appears to have consolidated much of the Republican base, with 77% of Republicans saying that they plan to vote for the incumbent. But that is still lower than many of the other Republicans on the ballot.
Raffensperger’s re-election campaign is not necessarily being driven by his own party. This survey indicates that Democrats and left-leaning independents commend him for going toe-to-toe with Trump and are willing to reward him with another term in office.
Nguyen’s strategy indicates that she is well aware of Raffensperger’s crossover support. Her main message is quite simple: “Brad is not our friend.” She is trying to remind voters of Raffensperger’s support of S.B. 202, a Republican-crafted state law that significantly overhauled Georgia’s elections.
The Republican’s double-digit lead is also another sign that Georgians are ready to move on from the 2020 election. Trump endorsed several candidates in the Republican primary, and many of them were defeated. This poll also found that nearly half of voters are less likely to support a candidate who believes that the 2020 election was stolen.
Personally? As a Democrat, I plan to support Nguyen in the general election. Make no mistake, I am proud of Raffensperger for doing his job and not buckling to Trump’s demands. But at the end of the day, he simply did what he was supposed to do as Secretary of State. He has no power to invalidate election results, so he couldn’t have overturned the 2020 election even if he wanted to.
But it is clear that his crossover appeal is undeniable, which means that Nguyen has a tough race ahead of her. After the 2020 election, he became a fixture on left-leaning cable news shows such as Morning Joe. He has published a book, written several op-eds and testified before the January 6 committee. So Democratic voters are well aware of his feud with the former President.
I just find it incredible how quickly things can change in American politics. Just a year ago, Raffensperger was widely regarded as dead in the water. Now, he is on track to be one of the best-performing Republicans on the ballot this November.
It’s another reminder that nothing is certain in politics, especially in a swing state like Georgia.
Thanks Niles, for another informative report!