Poll: Kemp, Warnock narrowly lead in top GA races

Biden approval deeply underwater in Georgia

Brian Kemp and Raphael Warnock

A new poll is shedding new light on an emerging split-ticket dynamic in Georgia’s big races.

Republican Gov. Brian Kemp leads Democrat Stacey Abrams, while Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock is slightly ahead of Republican rival Herschel Walker, according to a new University of Georgia poll released Wednesday by the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

The survey of 902 likely voters found the Republican governor leading his Democratic archrival 48% to 43%, with 7% of voters saying that they are undecided. The race for governor is a rematch between two bitter rivals and is already attracting millions of dollars in outside spending.

The race for U.S. Senate is closer, with Sen. Warnock edging Walker 46% to 43% in a contest that is likely to determine the balance of power in Washington. 3% say that they will support Libertarian nominee Chase Oliver, and 8% remain undecided.

Additionally, Republicans appear to be ahead in two down-ballot contests. In the race for Secretary of State, Republican incumbent Brad Raffensperger leads Democratic challenger Bee Nguyen by a double-digit margin. And State Sen. Burt Jones (R) is narrowly ahead of Democrat Charlie Bailey in the Lieutenant Governor contest.

President Joe Biden — who just two years ago became the first Democratic presidential candidate to carry the Peach State since Bill Clinton, is now facing low approvals from Georgia voters. Just thirty-six percent say that they approve of the President’s job performance, while 60% give him negative marks.

The findings of the survey raised more questions about the possibility of a split result in November. Several polls in recent weeks have found Gov. Kemp leading Abrams, while Sen. Warnock is either tied with or narrowly leading Walker.

The current polling averages at RealClearPolitics have Warnock ahead by about 5 points, while Kemp is leading by more than 3.

With just over 100 days remaining until election day, time is not nearly up for Abrams and Walker. But this UGA survey left them both with some concerning findings. College graduates, who have emerged as a reliable Democratic voting bloc in recent years, are supporting Warnock 57% to 32%. But Abrams only leads 51% to 39%.

Furthermore, Abrams is lagging slightly behind Warnock in African-American support. Warnock enjoys the support of 85% of Black voters, while Abrams earns 80%. It’s a surprising result for Abrams, who is seeking to become the first Black female governor in American history and is a known quantity in Georgia’s Black community.

As for Walker, one cause for concern in the survey is his underperformance with white voters. Kemp has the backing of sixty-seven percent of whites in the poll, but Walker is at just 58%. In one of the most racially polarized states in the nation, Walker’s path to victory includes earning between 65% to 70% of white voters.

Another worrying crosstab for Walker is his weakness with voters over the age of sixty-five. Gov. Kemp is dominating with older voters, 54% to Abrams’ 38%. But in the Senate race, Walker’s lead is significantly tighter: 46% to 43%. One would have expected this to be one of Walker’s strongest constituencies, because older voters are more likely to reminisce about Walker’s days as a football player.

Economic concerns are the top issue on voters’ minds, as consumers grapple with soaring inflation and high gas prices. Half of Georgians described rising prices as an “extremely important” factor in their vote, according to the poll. Gun violence and abortion rights were also important issues.