100 Days Out: Where things stand
Election Day is 100 days away
We are now 100 days from election day.
On Tuesday, November 8, millions of Georgians will head to the polls to render the final verdict in several high-profile contests up and down the ballot.
From who will be Georgia’s next governor, to who controls the U.S. Senate, and who will oversee the counting of Georgia’s votes in future elections. There is a lot on the line in the next 100 days.
Here is a brief overview of where things stand as we enter this new phase of the 2022 campaign.
Kemp/Warnock split?
Several polls in recent days have pointed to a rather unique trend among Georgia voters.
Republican Gov. Brian Kemp and Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock are both narrowly leading their opponents in the RealClearPolitics polling average, leading some to wonder if Georgians might deliver a split result in November.
Split-ticket voting is far from unheard of, but it is a diminishing phenomenon in an era where every race up and down the ticket is becoming tied to national politics.
Though, one might argue that this says more about incumbency advantage than ticket-splitting. There is still plenty of time for things to change, but it is widely regarded that Kemp and Warnock are narrowly ahead in their races at the moment.
Atlanta DA sidelined from investigation into LG candidate
For the last several months, Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis has been investigating attempts by the Trump campaign to overturn the 2020 election results.
Among those being investigated was Burt Jones, a state lawmaker who is the Republican nominee for Lieutenant Governor. Jones was one of the 16 Georgia Republicans who falsely claimed that they would cast Georgia’s votes in the electoral college.
Jones fought to disqualify Willis from leading the investigation because she held a campaign fundraiser for his Democratic opponent, Charlie Bailey. A Fulton County judge handed his legal team a major court victory when he barred Willis’ office from questioning Jones. His case is now set to be reassigned to another Georgia prosecutor.
Bailey is trying to make Jones’ legal woes a major issue in the campaign. He has called Jones “un-American” and “unpatriotic” for echoing the former President’s lies about the 2020 election.
Biden approval rating sinks
Just 2 years ago, Joe Biden became the first Democratic presidential nominee to win Georgia’s electoral votes since Bill Clinton in 1992.
But Georgia has not been immune from the President’s sinking popularity. Last week’s University of Georgia poll found Biden’s approval rating among Georgia voters at just 38%, while 60% give him a negative review.
You can expect Biden to be featured in many attack ads from Georgia Republicans this fall, as they attempt to tie their Democratic counterparts to the unpopular President.
We are already starting to get a preview of this strategy. Herschel Walker is reminding voters that Sen. Warnock votes with Biden “96% of the time.” And Gov. Kemp is trying to link Stacey Abrams to the Biden administration’s economic agenda.
Democrats, for their part, are trying to avoid Biden as much as they can. “I’m focused on the job I’m doing,” Warnock answered when asked about Biden’s job performance. “When that means standing with this person or that person, it’s based on what it does for Georgia.”
GA GOP set to retain legislative majorities
Whether it’s Gov. Brian Kemp or Stacey Abrams, the winner of this year’s race for governor will almost certainly be facing a Republican-controlled legislature in January.
Georgia Republicans are poised to retain their majorities in both the House and the Senate after passing redistricting plans that cemented their dwindling grip on power.
A Republican-controlled legislature means we are likely to see abortion restrictions and gun rights bills come up for debate in the next legislative session. We might also see more bills that target critical race theory and transgender rights.
But if Stacey Abrams is elected governor, these bills are going to be met with a veto pen. Which is why Gov. Kemp’s re-election is crucial for Republican legislative leaders. A Democratic governor will single-handily prevent their agenda from becoming law.
Raffensperger’s rise from the ashes
This time last year, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger was widely considered a dead man walking in the Republican primary. He had become a frequent Trump target for refusing to overturn Biden’s victory and was facing a Trump-backed primary challenge.
But the Republican incumbent easily won his primary and now enters the general election with a double-digit lead over his Democratic opponent, State Rep. Bee Nguyen. And he might have some unlikely supporters in his race for a second term.
Last week’s UGA survey found that 16% of Democrats plan to support Raffensperger in the race for Secretary of State, a sign that many liberals and moderates commend the Republican incumbent for not buckling to Trump’s demands.
Just a few months ago, Raffensperger was thought to be facing an uphill, if not impossible path to re-election. Now he is expected to be one of the best-performing Republican candidates on the ballot in November. It’s just yet another reminder that nothing is certain in politics.
McBath headed for third term
Democratic U.S. Rep. Lucy McBath is on track to easily win a third term in Congress this November after winning the Democratic primary in Georgia’s Gwinnett-based 7th district, which became increasingly Democratic in redistricting.
McBath’s current 6th district became significantly more conservative in the remap, forcing her to challenge fellow U.S. Rep. Carolyn Bourdueax in the neighboring 7th.
She easily defeated Bourdeaux in the Democratic primary, taking 63% of the vote to Bourdeaux’s 30%. In solidly blue districts such as this, the only competitive election is the Democratic pimrary.
A former Delta flight attendant, McBath became prominent in the gun control movement following the murder of her teenaged son at a Jacksonville gas station.
McBath’s win also brings more representation for voters of color in a state that has a booming non-white population.
DATES TO REMEMBER
October 11: Deadline to register to vote
October 17: Early in-person voting begins
October 22: First mandatory Saturday voting
October 28: Last day to request absentee ballot
October 29: Second mandatory Saturday voting
November 8: Election Day
Informative behind the issues reading. Thank you for providing pertinent voting dates.💙👏🏾