SW GA seat emerges as U.S. House battleground
GOP places Democrat Bishop on target list
With President Joe Biden’s approval ratings at an all-time low and Democrats clinging to narrow majorities in Congress, Republicans are expanding their list of targets in the battle for control of the U.S. House.
Longtime Rep. Sanford Bishop, a Democrat from Albany, has represented Southwest Georgia in Congress since 1993. With positive ratings from gun rights groups and a mixed record on abortion rights, Bishop has developed a reputation as moderate Democrat.
Republicans believe that the 2nd district is part of their path to the House majority. Democrats, aware of the GOP’s target list, recently added Bishop to their “Frontliners” program. Could the battle for the House run through Southwest Georgia?
Bishop was first elected to Congress in 1992. A former state legislator, he ousted a white incumbent in the Democratic primary that year after the district became majority-Black during congressional redistricting.
For most of his 30-year tenure, he has not faced competitive re-elections. There are only two exceptions: In 2000, he was re-elected 53%-47% against a Black Republican who was strongly supported by the national party.
In 2010, he was re-elected by a narrow 3% margin in a race that was so close that some networks had begun calling it for his Republican opponent. Bishop’s narrow victory was one of the few bright spots in a disastrous year for Democrats in Georgia and across the country.
In Congress, Bishop is a member of the Congressional Black Caucus and the Blue Dog Coalition. He sits on the powerful Appropriations Committee, which determines how federal funds are spent.
Over the years, Bishop has been continuously ranked as one of the most bipartisan members of Congress. In 2001, he was one of 13 Democrats to support President George W. Bush’s first round of tax cuts. He is also a strong supporter of second amendment rights and has received “A” ratings from the National Rifle Association (NRA) as recently as 2014.
“I am a strong proponent of Second Amendment rights under the United States Constitution,” his website says. “I believe that law-abiding adults should be free to exercise their right to purchase, own, and carry firearms for the protection of their homes and families.”
But not all of his headlines in Congress have been flattering. In 2010, it was reported that he had directed Congressional Black Caucus scholarship funds to his relatives. In 2020, the Office of Congressional Ethics reported that Bishop misused campaign funds to cover personal expenses, such as golfing, travel and meals. The House Ethics Committee launched an investigation into the allegations, and he has agreed to cooperate.
Sensing a GOP wave, several Republican candidates have filed paperwork to challenge Bishop. They include Thomasville attorney Chris West and Dougherty County GOP chairwoman Vivian Childs. Party operative William Crozer and State Rep. Mike Cheokas are also considering bids.
The 2nd district serves Southwest Georgia. It may seem like a rural district, but it actually includes several mid-sized cities, such as Columbus, Macon and Albany. (It also includes former President Jimmy Carter’s hometown of Plains.)
As you can see above, Bishop has demonstrated an impressive ability to outrun the top of the ticket. In 2020, while President Joe Biden carried the 2nd district with around 55% of the vote, Bishop garnered 59% and outperformed Biden almost everywhere in the district.
Calhoun County, for example, went to President Biden by a 57%-42% margin. Bishop simultaneously won the county 68%-32%, an overperformance of nearly 20 percentage points.
Democrats were concerned that Bishop would be dealt a more unfavorable district during last year’s redistricting session. But that ended up not being the case: though the 2nd district did absorb more Republican turf, it remains one that still would have voted for Biden by a double-digit margin. In the 2021 U.S. Senate runoffs, Democrats Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff both carried the new 2nd district with around 56% of the vote.
It’s worth noting that the 2nd district is no longer a majority-Black district. The current GA02 was 51% African-American in 2011. The new map reduces that number to 49%. White voters now make up more than 40% of the population in the new district.
In an AJC interview, Bishop did not seem deterred by the new district boundaries:
“In the new district, as well as the old district, we have agriculture, we have three metropolitan areas: Macon Columbus, Albany. We’ve got military bases with lots of veterans in both iterations. We have colleges and universities, private and public. In both iterations, we’ve got communities of interest that are well represented. I think that that seems to be fair.”
National political handicappers are characterizing Bishop’s race as “Likely Democratic.” Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball says that Bishop could be ousted “in a bad Democratic environment.” The Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman wrote in December that Bishop would remain the favorite “in all but the reddest of waves.”
If the national environment does not improve for Democrats between now and November, it might not be difficult to imagine a seat like Bishop’s being competitive.
The 2nd district is one of the most racially polarized districts in the country and its voting patterns are incredibly inelastic. Democrats always manage to walk away with low-double digit margins in statewide and national races. Regardless, Republicans still plan on making a serious play here.
This race would become incredibly competitive if the 75-year-old Bishop were to retire. But he has made it clear that he will be running for re-election in 2022.
The 2nd district has not seen a competitive race in quite some time. But Republicans might be able to give Bishop his toughest race since 2010 if everything falls into place. At this early juncture, however, he can be considered as a favorite for re-election.
Informative and enlightening 💯
Well done, Niles!