Redistricting Watch: Dems on edge as GOP prepares to redraw maps
Redistricting Watch: Dems on edge as GOP prepares to redraw maps
GOP will seek to bandage bleeding in ATL suburbs
Every 10 years, state lawmakers across the country convene for the decennial process of redrawing congressional, state legislative and other political boundaries. This process is known as redistricting and reapportionment. It’s a highly politicized process, with the party in power often seeking to maximize their advantages.
We all know that Democrats have done impressively well in Georgia lately. In November 2020, Joe Biden became the first Democratic presidential nominee to capture Georgia’s electoral votes since Bill Clinton in 1992. The victories didn’t stop there: two months later, Georgia Democrats won not one but two blockbuster Senate runoff elections, retaking the majority in the U.S. Senate.
Despite these recent triumphs, however, Georgia Republicans still maintain a firm grip on state government. The GA GOP currently holds every constitutional office, along with sizeable majorities in both chambers of the state legislature. Because of this, Democrats will not have much input in terms of what the upcoming maps will look like. Republicans will be able to pass new maps even if every Democrat in the legislature voted against them.
This grim reality has many Georgia Democrats on pins and needles. Republicans are well aware of the recent changes in the state’s political landscape, and many expect them to use the upcoming map-making process as a way to stave off looming losses.
What Goes Around Comes Around?
In a way, Georgia Republicans are in the same position that Democrats were in back in the late 1990s and early 2000s. By that time, Democrats had controlled state government since the Reconstruction era. But throughout the 90s, their majorities in the state legislature started to get smaller and smaller: In 1990, Democrats had a 145-35 majority in the House and a 45-11 majority in the Senate. By the turn of the century, those majorities were reduced to 105-74 and 32-24, respectively. On top of that, they started to lose several important statewide elections, and Republicans began posting impressive numbers in the state’s rural areas. These factors led many Democrats to worry that they may be losing their grip on power in the state. As a result, they passed an extremely aggressive congressional map in the early 2000s, seen above to the left. They also concocted brutal state legislative maps to preserve their dwindling majorities under the Gold Dome.
By the mid-2000s, the Democratic-led scheme had been completely thwarted. Courts threw out the state legislative maps, paving the way for Republicans to assemble full control of state government. One of their first orders of business was undoing the Democratic-drawn congressional map in a rare mid-decade redistricting session, seen above on the right.
This time around, it’s the Republicans who find themselves in this predicament. Much like Democrats in the 90s, the Republican majorities in the state legislature are also starting to narrow. Democrats have also triumphed in recent statewide elections, powered by the leftward trends in suburban areas north of Atlanta. With redistricting just a few months away, Republicans are likely to use the process to bandage the bleeding in these suburban areas, as Democrats unsuccessfully attempted to do with rural areas back in the early 2000s. It’s safe to say that Republicans are facing a lot of eerily similar situations that Democrats faced two decades ago. Is this what people call “déjà vu?”
As we look ahead to this year’s redistricting session, the big question on everyone’s mind is how Republicans will address their recent declines in the metro Atlanta area, particularly in northern suburban counties such as Cobb and Gwinnett.
The 2010 census resulted in Georgia gaining a 14th seat in Congress. Republicans began the decade with a comfortable 10-4 edge in the congressional delegation. But recent Democratic victories have narrowed that majority to 8-6. In 2018, gun control activist and retired Delta flight attendant Lucy McBath (D) pulled off a stunning upset when she ousted GOP Rep. Karen Handel in the suburban 6th district. The two faced off again in a 2020 rematch, which McBath won easily. Next door, GSU professor Carolyn Bourdeaux (D) came within 500 votes of flipping the Gwinnett-anchored 7th District. The GOP incumbent, Rob Woodall, chose to retire in 2020 following the razor-thin result, and Bourdeaux went on to flip the open seat.
The two Democratic newcomers find themselves in a precarious position as redistricting approaches. Republicans, anxious to slow the leftward trends in the metro Atlanta suburbs, will very likely seek to win back at least one — if not both districts through the map-making process.
If the GOP decides to cede one of the districts, the easiest way to do that would be by combining the bluest parts of the 6th and the 7th into one safely Democratic seat, otherwise known as a “vote sink.” In exchange, the other district would then comprise of solidly Republican north Georgia counties such as Hall, Cherokee, Forsyth and/or White. A scenario like this would either pit the two newcomers against each other in a Democratic primary, or result in one of them standing down and allowing the other to take the new seat.
There’s also a possibility that Republicans could be even more aggressive and try to carve out two new seats in north Georgia, leaving both McBath and Bourdeaux without any favorable turf. Though Dave Wasserman, who analyzes House elections at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, does not think that this is likely. A map that vicious could not only unravel in a few cycles, but it could also be challenged in court by voting rights activists as a racial gerrymander for packing minority voters in Atlanta into just three districts.
And what about the rest of the state? Down in south Georgia, longtime Rep. Sanford Bishop, a member Blue Dog Coalition, maintains a strong grip on the racially polarized 2nd District. His moderate stances on social issues such as abortion and gun rights have played well with rural white voters over the years. While some Republicans may entertain the idea of making the 2nd district more Republican, doing so could be seen as a violation of the Voting Rights Act, according to a recent analysis from Wasserman. It’s also not guaranteed that a more competitive district in Southwest Georgia would be completely unwinnable for Bishop, given his good rapport with rural whites.
It’s worth keeping in mind that far-right favorite Rep. Jody Hice, who represents the 10th District, is challenging embattled Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger in next year’s Republican primary. Several other Republican members of the delegation, such as Rep. Drew Ferguson (GA03) and Rep. Buddy Carter (GA01), could jump into the wide-open GOP primary for U.S. Senate. This is important because the absence of incumbents will give Republicans more wiggle room in redistricting, because they will have fewer incumbents to satisfy.
How long will it take to redraw maps?
In terms of when the process will take place: don’t expect maps to be redrawn any time soon. Normally, the process would be underway right about now. But the COVID-19 pandemic has led to a delay in the delivery of census data, which means it could be months before maps are finalized. Georgia House Speaker David Ralston (R-Blue Ridge) says that a redistricting session might not be called until the fall. Lawmakers would like for things to be finalized by Thanksgiving. But lengthy partisan fights, backroom deals and litigation could mean that the process may very well stretch into the Christmas holiday season, if not the New Year.
While it may be a while before maps are redrawn, the legislative committee that oversees the redistricting process will be holding public hearings throughout the summer. Details on the date, location and format of the hearings have yet to be released, but State Rep. Bonnie Rich (R-Suwanee), who chairs the redistricting committee, has suggested that hearings could begin some time in June.