Redistricting ruling could sideline powerful GOP lawmakers
In Senate, committee chairs in crosshairs of redrawn map
This month’s court ruling that found Georgia’s voting maps to be discriminatory could leave some powerful GOP state lawmakers on the outside looking in.
In addition to striking down the state’s congressional district maps, U.S. District Judge Steve Jones ordered the redrawing of several state house and state senate districts. He has said new maps must be passed by December 8, or else an independent mapmaker might take over the process.
Redistricting usually takes place at the start of every decade so that voting maps can be redrawn to accurately reflect population changes. But lawmakers must now literally return to the drawing board after Judge Jones, an Obama appointee, sided with civil rights groups who argued that the process left African-Americans at an unfair disadvantage in terms of representation.
Plaintiffs are seeking the creation of two new majority-Black senate districts and five new majority-Black state house districts. While the changes are unlikely to put the Republican majorities at risk, some of their most well-known members could be out of jobs a lot sooner than they anticipated.
In the 56-member state senate, every GOP Senator believed to be at risk is a committee chair. Both of the new districts will need to be drawn in the southern metro Atlanta area. So if you are a Republican state senator from Henry County, for example, you could soon find yourself in a more competitive — or even Democratic-leaning district.
Over in the House, plaintiffs aren’t just seeking new districts in south metro Atlanta: districts in the Macon area and in Douglas County could also be significantly redrawn, which could leave several Republicans in search of friendlier constituencies ahead of 2024.
More lawmakers could be at risk as well: redistricting is a rare opportunity for leaders in both parties to take out members that they don’t particularly like. Others might find themself sharing a district with a colleague — or without a district to run for at all.
Here’s a look at some of the Republican lawmakers who are in immediate danger.
Brian Strickland
In talking to sources inside and outside the Gold Dome, it is generally agreed upon that the most vulnerable Republican lawmaker is State Sen. Brian Strickland.
The McDonough Republican, who chairs the Judiciary Committee, had started to face competitive races as Henry County’s surging Black population began translating to down-ballot contests — in 2020 he won re-election by less than 2,000 votes, or roughly two percentage points. But Sen. Strickland’s Republican colleagues, well aware of the dire outlook he was facing, planned to use the upcoming redistricting process to protect him and other vulnerable members.
Sure enough, Strickland’s district saw the most noticeable changes on the new map. Senate District 17, which at the time was anchored in and around Henry County, was stripped of its most Democratic areas so that it could stretch as far east as Morgan County. As expected, Strickland coasted to re-election in his new district with 61 percent of the vote in 2022.
But that victory may have been short-lived: Judge Jones agreed with the plaintiffs’ claim that it is possible for an additional majority-Black Senate district to be drawn in Henry County. From page 279:
“A majority-Black Senate District 17 can be drawn in the vicinity of 2021 Senate District 17.”
There are a lot of ways that the map could end up being drawn. But if Sen. Strickland’s district returns to its previous configuration or something similar to it, he could be in for a tough race next November.
Lauren Daniel
Strickland isn’t the only endangered Henry County Republican. State Rep. Lauren Daniel’s future is also unclear.
Daniel is a newbie at the Gold Dome: she squeaked out a 400-vote victory in 2022 to win her Locust Grove-based district. Her close race made her an immediate target for defeat by Democrats in 2024. It also vaulted her to the top of Gov. Brian Kemp’s effort to defend his most vulnerable legislative allies.
But before she can campaign for re-election, Rep. Daniel will have to wait and see what the new map looks like. Two of the five new majority-Black state house districts will need to be drawn in southern metro Atlanta. And while Strickland and many of the other Republicans on this list have been around for a while, Daniel is only a freshman. In other words, she might be one of the easiest for Republican leaders to sacrifice because she doesn’t bring much to the table in terms of legislative achievements and seniority.
Rick Williams
State Sen. Rick Williams isn’t among the most well-known legislators, but he has become a fixture at the Gold Dome since arriving in 2017. Now the chairman of the retirement committee, the Milledgeville Republican has never faced a competitive race since being elected.
That could soon change, as his district is now in the crosshairs of a redrawn map. Many of the remedial Senate district maps referenced by Judge Jones dismantle Senate District 25 to make room for a more competitive district in the Black Belt region, like the one shown above.
“The Court finds that the Alpha Phi Alpha Plaintiffs have met their burden in showing that the Black voting age population in the eastern Black Belt is large enough to constitute an additional majority-Black district.”
But Williams has an important ally in the Senate: Lt. Gov. Burt Jones, the chamber’s presiding officer whose senate seat Williams now holds. Redistricting decisions can often come down to personal relationships, and it’s good to have a power player like the lieutenant governor in your corner when your political career is in jeopardy.
Marty Harbin
Another name to watch in the Senate is State Sen. Marty Harbin. Harbin, who represents most of Fayette County along with several counties to its south, has been at the Capitol since 2014 and now chairs the Senate Oversight committee.
But with new majority-Black Senate districts poised to be drawn south of Atlanta, Sen. Harbin could find himself facing a more diverse group of voters on the campaign trail next year. None of the plans referenced in the ruling are final, but many of them shift Harbin’s district north — swapping heavily white counties like Pike and Spalding for heavily Black neighborhoods in southern Clayton and northern Fayette.
It’s a configuration that could imperial Harbin’s re-election chances, as there are currently no white lawmakers representing Clayton County at the Gold Dome.
Karen Mathiak
State. Rep. Karen Mathiak’s House district, HD-74, is located in the same area as Harbin’s Senate district. As such, she is facing the same vulnerabilities for the same reasons: a white lawmaker who could soon find herself having to campaign for re-election in heavily Black Clayton County.
Judge Jones noted in his ruling that the lawyers defending the state’s map acknowledged that the plaintiffs’ proposed HD-74 does a better job of keeping communities together. From page 298:
“In fact, Mr. [John] Morgan, Defendant’s mapping expert, agreed that it includes the ‘panhandle of Clayton, which is not included in the enacted District 74.’ Thus, the Court finds that Mr. Cooper respected political subdivisions when drawing Cooper HD-74.”
Robert Dickey
As mentioned before, a new state house map will have to include changes in and around Macon. Those changes could come at the expense of one or more GOP lawmakers in the area, such as state Rep. Robert Dickey.
A Crawford County native, Dickey is the chair of the House Agriculture committee. But lawmakers are being ordered to draw two additional majority-Black districts in Macon, which could set off a game of musical chairs in the region.
“Based on the following analysis, the Court finds that the Grant Plaintiffs have met their burden in establishing that the Black community was sufficiently numerous and compact to create two additional majority-Black districts in the Macon-Bibb region.”
Others to watch
The list of vulnerable Republicans could extend well beyond this list. Republican State Sen. Matt Brass’ district, for example, will need to be redrawn per the judge’s instructions. But Brass is the chairman of the Rules Committee, the panel in charge of helping the lieutenant governor set the schedule and establish rules for the chamber. Lt. Gov. Jones might not be willing to let go of such a powerful ally.
We might also see more maneuvering in the House. A new majority-Black district could be drawn in Douglas County, which could endanger the county’s only Republican lawmaker, state Rep. Kimberly New.
It is worth keeping in mind that none of the plans referenced in this story have been proposed or approved. Until we see an actual map, all we can do is speculate. But these Republicans each represent districts that were found to be drawn in a discriminatory manner, which means they will all have to be reconfigured in some way.
So while Georgia Republicans might not be at risk of losing their legislative majorities, just the mere possibility of new maps being drawn threatens to sideline some of their most powerful members.
The special redistricting session is set to begin on November 29.