Opinion: Trump might as well be on the ballot in CD-03 primary
Former president's influence tested in congressional primary
Donald Trump will not be on the ballot when Republican primary voters in Georgia’s 3rd district head to the polls next month.
But he might as well be.
The former President has gotten heavily involved in the primary to replace U.S. Rep. Drew Ferguson, a dentist who is stepping aside after four terms in Congress representing this vast west Georgia territory.
Brian Jack, a longtime Trump political advisor, enters the contest with the full support of his boss. The 36-year-old has also been endorsed by many of Trump’s top Georgia allies, including Lt. Gov. Burt Jones and state agriculture chief Tyler Harper.
But he must first emerge from a primary — and possibly a June runoff — that features a host of candidates with deep ties to the district, which includes all or parts of 15 counties from southwest metro Atlanta to the state line.
The field includes two Mikes who are Gold Dome alumni: Mike Dugan, a former state senate majority leader, and Mike Crane, who lost a runoff to Ferguson for this seat in 2016.
Philip Singleton, another former state lawmaker who is now a top aide to U.S. Rep. Rich McCormick, is also in the running.
From a policy standpoint, you will find little differences among the candidates. All four are staunch conservatives who would be reliable Republican votes on Capitol Hill.
But Jack’s opponents aren’t giving him a free ride. Singleton, for instance, has attacked Jack as a swamp creature who was behind then-President Trump’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic. And Dugan is enjoying the support of many of his former colleagues in the state Senate.
All four candidates posted six-figure hauls during the previous quarter, federal fundraising reports show. But it’s Jack who leads the field in campaign cash, with more than $600,000 in the bank.
Despite Georgia’s battleground status in presidential politics, closely fought congressional races between Democrats and Republicans in the Peach State have become increasingly rare. And a recent round of redistricting only made these so-called “toss-up” districts a thing of the past, at least for now.
“As with the version that was struck down, the new Georgia map features 9 Trump-won seats and 5 Biden-won seats. As it is, there are no crossover members in the delegation.”
In other words, it’s the free-for-all primary for this solidly Republican seat — where 64 percent of voters backed Trump over Joe Biden in 2020 — that stands out as this year’s only competitive congressional affair. Whoever emerges from the crowded race will sail through the general election, highlighting the reduced competition between the parties as a result of the new district lines.
It might also serve as a test of Trump’s influence over a divided Republican base in a key swing state — one where many of his endorsed candidates haven’t fared too well since his 2020 defeat.
Just two (long) months later, Democrats captured both of Georgia’s U.S. Senate seats — and along with them control of the chamber — in grueling runoff elections after Trump’s continued questions about the validity of his loss led to a disenfranchised Republican base.
Some of his top recruits in 2022 didn’t win the primary. Gov. Brian Kemp and Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, two lifelong Republicans, drew Trump’s ire for refusing to echo his claims of election fraud. Nevertheless, they easily quashed challenges from Trump-backed candidates.
That year’s U.S. Senate showdown saw Herschel Walker, the famed UGA running back and Trump’s friend of many decades, fall short in a bid to oust Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock.
So while Trump himself isn’t competing in this race, his heavy involvement is only increasing the stakes. If it becomes a loyalty contest, Jack is the undisputed frontrunner. His campaign is centered heavily around his ties to the ex-President and he has stumped with many familiar faces in conservative politics, including Arizona’s Kari Lake.
But a loss from Jack would be another unwanted setback for Trump in a state that might ultimately come down to which party does the best job energizing and turning out their supporters.