The presidential rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump will officially become official this week with Tuesday’s Georgia primary set to seal the former President’s third straight GOP nomination.
This comes after a weekend that saw competing Georgia campaign stops from the two leaders, a preview of what is expected to be a nail-biter race for the Peach State’s 16 electoral votes.
Despite breezing through a sleepy presidential primary season, both candidates must now confront a country that largely does not want to see either of them on the ballot again — let alone both of them.
Their weaknesses have been well-defined by now. President Biden, who will have turned 82 by Inauguration Day 2025, is attempting to combat worries over his age by reminding voters of his 77-year-old rival’s gaffes on the campaign trail.
Despite a soaring stock market and cooling inflation, the President’s net approval is a mirror image of Ronald Reagan’s at this point ahead of his landslide 1984 re-election, according to 538.
The administration’s support for Israel is leading to a rift with the Democratic Party’s more progressive wing, which includes many of the college students and millennials who turned out for Biden in record numbers four years ago.
The issue of immigration has also been a huge headache for Biden. Last month’s Quinnipiac University national poll found that 63 percent of voters — including nearly a third of Democrats, give him poor marks for his handling of the situation at the U.S./Mexico border.
Trump, meanwhile, will have to balance campaign life and courtroom life. Facing 91 felony charges, the former President could find himself on trial in multiple states between now in November. And there are worries about how a conviction could impact his standing with swing voters and possibly some Republicans.
Even in the Republican primary, it became evident that Trump will have his work cut out for him. For example, posting a landslide victory in the Iowa caucus seems impressive until you remember that lots of caucus-goers supported another candidate.
And Trump’s continued 2020 election denialism is not as unanimous within the Republican electorate as it looks. Primary exit polls in state after state have shown most of Nikki Haley’s supporters agreeing that Biden was legitimately elected. But with Trump set to rely heavily on his base, it’s anyone’s guess as to how Haley voters will break in November.
This weekend’s Georgia rallies offered a snapshot of what we can expect on the campaign trail. Trump, only a few minutes into his remarks, began lacing into “Crooked Joe’s angry, dark, hate-filled rant of a State of the Union” and mocking Biden’s stutter.
Biden said that Trump was just a few miles away kicking off his campaign with Marjorie Taylor Greene. He also reminded his Atlanta audience of Trump’s past statements praising Viktor Orbán, Kim Jong-Un, Vladimir Putin and other dictatorial world leaders. “Donald Trump and the MAGA Republicans are trying to take our freedoms away,” the President said.
“But guess what? We’re not gonna let them take ‘em away!”
My advice to everyone is this: I know that this isn’t the contest you want, but it’s the one we’re going to get. The biggest chance the parties had to address these concerns — the primary — has come and gone. It is now up to the candidates to assuage a worrisome electorate.
I would also caution against putting a lot of stock in national polling. It may be early in the year, but I can say with confidence that most voters are not undecided between these two candidates. Plus, we all know by now that this country doesn’t elect its presidents by direct vote.
Our electoral college has reduced the playing field to roughly half a dozen key battleground states, which means national polls are going to have a hard time accurately predicting the breakdown of a few thousand voters in places like North Fulton County and the Phoenix suburbs.
The next eight months are going to be grueling. Election night is going to be chaotic and the aftermath could be even worse. But these are the cards we’ve been dealt, so get ready to head to the ballot box and play your hand.