Meet your only Senate Democrat on the ballot in a Trump state

Georgia's Ossoff faces his biggest test yet

Jon Ossoff

Georgia Democrat Jon Ossoff has built an impressive resume over his relatively short career.

He got his first brush with politics in high school when he worked as an intern for his congressman, civil rights hero John Lewis. He then built a massive portfolio running his own investigative film shop. He raised millions of dollars in a high-profile special election for a suburban congressional seat in his first-ever run for office. And he toppled a wealthy Republican incumbent in 2021 to help his party wrest control of the Senate that year.

But as the only Democratic Senator on the ballot next year in a state that President Donald Trump carried, the 38-year-old is gearing up for what could be his biggest challenge yet. The retirement of Sen. Gary Peters, a Michigan Democrat, leaves only two Senators on the ballot in states that had been carried by the opposite party: Ossoff and longtime Maine Republican Susan Collins.

Election forecasters will quickly point to Ossoff as the most vulnerable incumbent on the map next year. But a few of them also note that his chances of winning a second term could all hinge on whether or not Gov. Brian Kemp enters the race.

“While on the GOP side, Susan Collins of Maine is also running in a state that Harris carried, she has a track record of winning over crossover voters, even in presidential years. Ossoff has to prove that 2020 and the unique runoff environment wasn't a fluke.”

— Jessica Taylor, Cook Political Report

“Ossoff has the distinction of being the only Democrat up for re-election in a state carried by Donald Trump in 2024. That alone would be enough to earn him a massive target on his back, but the prospect of Gov. Brian Kemp running against him supercharges the attention being paid to the race.”

— Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

“If [Kemp] enters, it's not hard to imagine him leading the race the whole way, although that wouldn't be a certainty, either. Meanwhile, if Kemp doesn't enter, Ossoff's position becomes better, and the quality of the Republican nominee would be a question mark.”

— Kyle Kondik, University of Virginia’s Center For Politics

National Republicans have made no secret about their interest in Kemp. As a popular two-term governor, he’s likely the only Republican who can raise the money to compete with Ossoff, a prolific fundraiser who already has $5 million in the bank for what is certain to be an expensive contest. And a January survey from a GOP outside group found the governor leading the first-term Democrat 46 percent to 40 percent, with 14 percent undecided. By contrast, the same poll found Ossoff on top of other Republican candidates by double digits.

But if Kemp stays on the sidelines, as many allies privately expect him to, it could create a messy Republican primary and leave the eventual nominee bruised and battered — which could work to Ossoff’s advantage. Members of the Republican congressional contingent, such as Reps. Buddy Carter and Marjorie Taylor Greene, have expressed interest if Kemp doesn’t run. Tyler Harper, the state’s top farmer, was spotted in Washington last month huddling with Senate Republicans about a possible run.

The Democrat and his team say they are prepared for any Republican challenger. “For years we have been laying the groundwork and we are already building the most massive and efficient turnout effort in Georgia history,” a top Ossoff spokesperson said on the condition of anonymity. “Sen. Ossoff has delivered for every part of Georgia and will overwhelm any challenger foolish enough to run in a midterm that will be defined by backlash against Trump’s chaotic and corrupt leadership.”

Republicans believe his 2021 victory as a one-off fueled in part by Trump’s crusade against mail-in and absentee voting. They are eager to highlight a growing rift between Ossoff — Georgia’s first Jewish Senator — and the state’s Jewish leaders over the Israel/Hamas conflict. They also say that his votes on recent immigration measures will come back to haunt him.

“Jon Ossoff didn’t have the strength to support the Laken Riley Act after her tragic death, doubled down on telling parents that their daughters must compete with males in women's sports, and is losing support among Jewish Georgians because he doesn’t stand with Israel,” said Nick Puglia, a regional press secretary at the Senate Republican campaign arm. “Georgians deserve a leader in the U.S. Senate, not a pawn for the radical left's insane agenda.”

With a 53-47 majority, Republicans see Georgia as their strongest opportunity to expand upon their majority. But without Gov. Kemp in the race, a nominee with discipline, money and the right strategy to oust Ossoff could be challenging.