Kemp, Walker poised for victories as down-ballot primaries remain murky
Down-ballot races up in air while Senate, Governor races take shape
On Tuesday, Georgia voters are set to nominate candidates in the state’s most high-profile races. But while the results in some primaries appear to be set in stone, other races remain up in the air with roughly 24 hours until the polls open.
In the Republican race for Governor, former Sen. David Perdue is widely regarded as an underdog in his challenge to Gov. Brian Kemp. Perdue, the hand-picked candidate of former President Donald Trump, is grappling with a wide fundraising deficit and low poll numbers as he enters Tuesday’s primary. The former President has also scaled back his involvement in the race.
Former UGA football star Herschel Walker is on track for a huge victory in Tuesday’s Republican primary for U.S. Senate. Walker’s opponents, who include state agriculture commissioner Gary Black and businessman Latham Saddler, have warned that his celebrity status and troubled past could make for a difficult campaign in a race that could tip the balance of power in Washington. But those warnings don’t appear to have resonated with Republican voters, with Walker polling as high as 66% in a recent Fox News survey.
The results of some of the Democratic primaries will also be known pretty early on Tuesday night. Stacey Abrams is running unopposed in the Democratic primary for governor. And U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock is set to be easily renominated.
But further down the ballot, most races are very much up in the air. The race for Lieutenant Governor will be one of the most closely watched races on Tuesday night. On the Republican side, state senators Burt Jones and Butch Miller are locked in a competitive primary and they are both targeting conservative voters. Jones is publicizing an endorsement from Trump, while Miller is outlining his support of conservative legislation such as transgender sports bans and school choice.
There is almost certainly going to be a runoff in the Democratic primary. A total of nine Democrats are jockeying for the state’s second highest office. Among them are a former Attorney General candidate, three state lawmakers and a former Atlanta city councilman who briefly served in Congress. To further complicate things: all nine of the candidates are from the metro Atlanta area, so no candidate will have a significant geographic advantage.
Another big mystery heading into Tuesday is the race for Secretary of State. Incumbent Brad Raffensperger, who drew the ire of the former President for refusing to overturn Joe Biden’s victory, is being challenged by U.S. Rep. Jody Hice. Aside from the Governor and Senate races, this is another marquee race to watch on Tuesday. Nevertheless, polling in the race has been limited. Hice interestingly has not aired any TV ads in recent weeks, a sign that his campaign might be saving their resources for a potential runoff with Raffensperger.
Democrats are trying to rally behind Bee Nguyen, a state lawmaker from Atlanta. She has more money than any other Democrat in the race combined and she has also racked up endorsements from some of the state’s most prominent Democrats. But Nguyen is running in a field that includes a former Cobb Democratic Party chair, a former state senator and a former Fulton County Commission chair. Nguyen’s campaign is aiming for an outright victory, but the large number of candidates could mean that a runoff is likely.
There are also a handful of congressional primaries to keep an eye on. Nine Republicans are running in the open 6th district, which was transformed from a Democratic to a Republican stronghold in redistricting. The top three candidates appear to be former State Rep. Megan Hanson, attorney Jake Evans and physician Rich McCormick. We are almost certainly going to have a runoff here.
In the 7th district, Democratic U.S. Reps. Carolyn Bourdeaux and Lucy McBath are on a collision course for a single, solidly-blue district based in suburban Gwinnett County. No matter the result, many Democrats are dreading the thought of losing one of their rising stars in a state that has become the center of the political universe in recent elections.
In the 10th district, the big question is whether Trump ally Vernon Jones will make it to a runoff in this sprawling Northeast Georgia district. His rivals have tried to remind voters of his past run-ins with the law and that he has little connections to the district (Jones is from DeKalb County).
While we have a pretty good idea of what will happen in the races for governor and U.S. Senate, many of the down-ballot primaries are quite literally anyone’s guess. Crowded fields, mixed fundraising and scarce polling are making these contests difficult predict. But we will finally have some answers on Tuesday night, in the form of results.
Get ready for an interesting week in Georgia politics.
I'm ready..I've voted let's go DEM'S💯👍🏾
Thanks Niles, for another excellent report!