GA GOP at crossroads as Kemp exits
Republicans prepare to pick Kemp's successor in test of party's image
In an era of increasing hyperpartisanship, Brian Kemp is emerging from a turbulent tenure in the governor’s mansion with his popularity rock solid.
After narrowly winning office in a bruising 2018 showdown with Democrat Stacey Abrams, the Republican’s first term was marked by a handful of controversial bills and decisions. He signed off on bills to limit access to abortion and overhaul the state’s election code. His appointment of businesswoman Kelly Loeffler to a U.S. Senate vacancy drew the ire of his party’s right flank — and President Donald Trump.
He refused to side with the then-former President’s claims of widespread fraud during the 2020 election. And he began easing COVID-19 restrictions despite warnings from national health officials.
But none of it ever seemed to take a toll on the governor’s popularity, as he easily quashed a Trump-inspired primary challenge and once again defeated Abrams to win himself a second term in office.
With his term now entering its final year, however, his party is now left to answer a seemingly straightforward question: what (and more importantly, who) comes next?
Though the president and the governor appear to have patched things up in what has been an extremely complicated relationship, the upcoming primary to succeed Kemp may well serve as a proxy war between the two leaders and their respective inner circles.
The heir vs. the loyalist?
The Republican primary began taking shape almost immediately after Kemp secured his second term in office. Chris Carr, the two-term state attorney general and a close confidant of Gov. Kemp, began taking steps toward his own gubernatorial bid and last fall became the first candidate to formally enter the race. He posted a $2 million haul earlier this year and has the support of several Republicans within Kemp’s political network, with many of them viewing him as the governor’s natural heir.
But Carr may soon be staring down a primary fight with a close Trump ally. Lt. Gov. Burt Jones was an early supporter of the President’s 2024 comeback bid and is expected to enter the race sometime after Independence Day, according to Republican sources. Jones, who has championed many MAGA-aligned causes as the state senate’s presiding officer, also brings deep pockets thanks to his family’s fortunes in the petroleum business.
Carr and Jones both bring strong name recognition to the contest. But Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger is the wildcard that could further complicate the race, says Martha Zoller, a political talk show host who supports Carr. “[Raffensperger] went from being the guy nobody wanted to have lunch with to being one of the biggest vote-getters in 2022,” she added. “And he did that by going everywhere he was asked to go and answering every question whether it was hostile or not.”
“The Trump Factor”
As is the case in most Republican primaries, President Trump’s influence is the cloud that hangs over the candidates and the entire contest. After all, it was Trump’s endorsement that leapfrogged Kemp from dark-horse contender to Republican nominee in 2018.
Jones is believed to be prolonging his announcement because of the “Trump factor,” says Zoller. As one of the President’s earliest known Georgia supporters and one of the “fake electors” who tried disrupting the certification of Joe Biden’s 2020 victory, Jones hopes that his early alliance with the MAGA movement will be returned in-kind with a presidential seal of approval.
And Carr, who in the past has embraced Kemp and former Gov. Nathan Deal’s more laid-back style of conservative politics, is now trying to find his place inside Trump’s GOP ahead of his expected clash with Jones. He has signed onto briefs supporting the President’s mass deportation efforts and has been spotted at many Trump-aligned events and conferences both in Georgia and in Washington.
Still, insiders are unsure if Carr’s attempt at a MAGA rebrand will be enough to avoid attacks from Jones and others that he’s just a “RINO” (Republican in name only). Though sources don’t think it’s a foregone conclusion that Trump will get involved so early in the contest, with one pointing out that Jones only narrowly won the primary for lieutenant governor in 2022 despite having Trump’s support while it was Carr who easily defeated a Trump-endorsed primary challenger.
Power on the line
Trump and Kemp are on the same page when it comes to making sure that Democrat Jon Ossoff is a one-term U.S. Senator. But the looming gubernatorial proxy war between their respective camps could threaten to end the GOP’s two-decade-long grip on power in Atlanta.
It might be a while before the President makes an endorsement, or he might not make one at all. But Jones will almost certainly use his MAGA credentials to distinguish himself from his rivals. He will also be able to tap into his family’s wealth to write himself a check whenever he wants, a personal incentive that Carr and other candidates will not have.
If things turn bloody between the two factions, the nominee could have trouble uniting the party ahead of a general election that Democrats are expected to heavily contest. Rural Georgia and the countryside may still vote like it’s the mid-2000s, but we live in a state where elections are won or lost on the backs of suburban moderates and Republican-leaning independents — voters who might not react positively to a messy primary.
The primary is more than just a contest to succeed Kemp: it could serve as a test of the party’s image. In roughly a year’s time, we will find out if Georgia Republicans want to continue down the path of traditional conservatism carved out by Kemp and his predecessors or engage in the loyalty tests and ideological battles that have defined — and divided — the party over the last few years.