GA Dems, flush with cash, navigate grim national outlook
GA Dems outraise GOP rivals as Biden support sags, economic concerns mount
Georgia candidates are slowly but steadily posting their second quarter fundraising reports, and Democrats are continuing their streak of breaking fundraising records.
Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock’s second quarter fundraising haul nearly tripled that of his Republican rival, Herschel Walker. The two are locked in a grueling race that could decide control of the U.S. Senate.
In the race for Governor, Democratic nominee Stacey Abrams far outraised Republican Gov. Brian Kemp thanks in no small part to a new state law allowing candidates to use leadership SuperPACs as fundraising backchannels.
Democratic donors haven’t forgotten about down-ballot races, either. In the race for Georgia’s top elections official, State Rep. Bee Nguyen (D) brought in more cash than Republican Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger. And State Sen. Jen Jordan (D) outraised Attorney General Chris Carr (R).
But will Georgia Democrats’ flush campaign coffers be enough to overcome what is shaping up to be a grim national environment for the party?
Sagging public support for President Joe Biden looms large over this year’s elections as Americans grow uneasy about rising inflation and the pain at the gas pump.
Georgia Republicans are hoping that Biden’s low approval rating — 33% in a recent Siena College national poll — will power them to victories in November. And they are seeking to tie their Democratic rivals to Biden’s agenda.
“That will definitely be a drag on Democratic candidates,” former State Rep. Buzz Brockway (R) said of Biden’s numbers. “It's not the only factor in this election obviously, but it's a contributor to the headwinds Democrats are facing this year.”
Wednesday’s inflation report was not welcoming news for Democrats. The consumer price index surged to 9.1% in June — higher than forecasters had anticipated. But the White House quickly argued that the report was “out of date” because it did not reflect a recent decrease in gas prices.
Nevertheless, Georgia Republicans are eager to bring economic issues front and center in this year’s elections. We are already seeing this in the race for governor: Gov. Kemp has suspended the state gas tax for the last several months, a move that saves Georgians around 30 cents per gallon.
But the current suspension is set to lapse in August, and Abrams has pushed her Republican rival to suspend the gas tax through the end of the year. She even took the unusual move of debuting an ad at gas pumps to amplify this message.
Another crisis that has plagued the Biden administration is a shortage of baby formula. In May, Kemp signed an emergency order to prohibit price gouging on the product. But his Democratic critics have called for an investigation into a state health policy that led to the destruction of thousands of cans of baby formula.
Republicans are also trying to nationalize the race for U.S. Senate, attacking Sen. Warnock for essentially being a rubber stamp for Biden’s agenda and saying that he has voted for the economic policies that have resulted in out-of-control prices.
Warnock has tried to distance himself from these attacks by sponsoring bills that he says would provide relief to struggling Americans. For example, he has led the call to suspend the federal gas tax. He has also sponsored legislation that would cap the cost of insulin for diabetics to prevent drug companies from raising prices.
His first ad of the 2022 campaign spoke directly to struggling Americans. “People have seen what they’ve worked their entire lives to build turned upside down in a moment’s notice,” he said. “What I want the people of Georgia to know is that I see you. I hear you. I am you.”
Republican nominee Herschel Walker has not been very detailed in terms of how he would combat the rising prices if elected. However, his campaign is taking a unique approach to provide relief to struggling Georgians.
Over the last few months, Walker’s campaign has given gas vouchers to drivers at Atlanta gas stations. They also visited a Southwest Georgia town, where they helped cover groceries for shoppers at a supermarket. Democrats have cried afoul, suggesting that the Walker campaign is bribing voters.
So while Democrats are continuing to raise millions more than their Republican counterparts, they must also navigate the reality of a brutal national environment.
“Biden’s approval numbers are obviously a problem for Democratic candidates,” said one Georgia Democrat who asked to remain anonymous. They went on to say that the party needs to avoid having the election defined as a referendum on the President, because low presidential approvals “portend more enthusiasm” among those who oppose/disapprove of him. “It’s tough out there this year,” they concluded.
The President’s problem isn’t just with Republicans and swing voters. He has a problem within his own party: liberal voters who wish that he had been more aggressive on issues like voting rights and abortion.
Anthony Michael Kreis, a left-leaning law professor at Georgia State University, believes that Warnock and Abrams should keep campaigning on popular parts of the President’s agenda. “The Biden Administration’s problem isn’t with their agenda’s popularity,” he said. “It’s with disaffected liberals who want the president to be more aggressive.”
In previous midterm elections, we usually see candidates of the party in power separate themselves from their party’s national brand. “I don’t think of Warnock and Abrams as being mavericks against their own party,” said Kyle Kondik of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics. He said that Warnock is helped by Walker’s problems, but that Abrams faces more of an uphill climb because she is running against an incumbent governor.
There have been polls that support this belief. On Thursday, a survey from AARP found Kemp leading Abrams 52% to 45%, while Warnock narrowly led Walker 50% to 47%. The poll also found Walker with upside-down favorables: forty-one percent have a favorable view of the Republican Senate nominee, while 49% have an unfavorable view.
Georgia Democrats have more than enough money to overcome the onslaught of attacks they will face from their Republican opponents. But it remains to be seen if it will all be enough to overcome the national environment. Sixty-five percent of Georgians disapprove of President Biden’s job performance, according to the AARP survey.
Democrats in swing states like Georgia will need to run several points ahead of the President in order to stay competitive.
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