Election 2022: Dems, GOP await decisions from top recruits
The Dem field for Governor and the GOP field for Senate have both remained frozen as both parties await decisions from their top recruits
Election day might be 533 days away, but Georgians are getting an early look at the 2022 elections. Several candidates have already launched statewide campaigns, and some high-profile incumbents have announced whether or not they will run for re-election. But both parties are (im)patiently awaiting decisions from two of their most prominent recruits. As the campaign kicks into high gear, everyone is wondering when and if they will announce or who might run if they choose not to.
Herschel
In the race for U.S. Senate, the Republican field has been flatlined for months as GOP operatives await a decision from football legend Herschel Walker, a Heisman Trophy winner and a longtime confidant of former President Donald Trump. Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) must face Georgia voters again in 2022 after defeating appointed Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R) in a runoff election earlier this year. Trump is on the record encouraging Walker to run, and South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham recently said at a Georgia Republican fundraiser that he has been talking with Walker about the race. “Stay tuned, folks,” Graham said.
If Walker chooses not to run, several Republican members of the state’s congressional delegation will likely enter the race. For example, Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler) has told reporters that he will only enter the race if Walker decides not to run. He is said to be having behind-the-scenes conversations with Walker about the race. Rep. Drew Ferguson (R-West Point) is eyeing the race as well. But like Carter, it’s difficult to see him entering the race if Walker bulldozes the field with Trump’s blessing.
Some statewide officeholders are also worth paying attention to. Georgia Attorney General Chris Carr, a protégé of former Sen. Johnny Isakson, has been seen as potential U.S. Senate candidate, but he recently announced that he will seek a second full term as AG. It’s not unrealistic to think that he could give the race another look if Walker remains on the sidelines. Agriculture Commissioner Gary Black has made it clear that he is considering a run, and people close to him have said that a decision could come soon.
If Walker decides to enter the race, he would certainly have the benefit of being endorsed by Trump, the most popular figure in the Republican Party. A Trump endorsement also means he won’t have any problem raising money. But he would also have some liabilities, the biggest of which would probably be his residency: he is currently registered to vote in Tarrant County, TX. He would also face questions about his mental health struggles, which he has spoken publicly about in recent years.
Who has entered the race so far? Two Republican military veterans — Kelvin King and Latham Saddler, have announced that they will challenge Warnock. But neither candidate is a household name and will have to spend most of their resources introducing themselves to Republican voters rather than attacking their opponents.
Stacey
The Democrats are facing a similar dilemma in the race for governor. Everyone is waiting to see if former state house minority leader and 2018 Democratic nominee Stacey Abrams will mount a rematch against Gov. Brian Kemp (R) after their hard-fought and narrow battle three years ago. Since her loss, Abrams has created a voting rights organization called Fair Fight, and many Democratic voters say that her work with the organization was an important factor in the victories of Joe Biden, Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff.
In recent months, Abrams and her organization have been the most vocal opponents of recent election restriction bills in Republican state legislatures across the country. After the passage of S.B. 202 in Georgia, Abrams attacked the bill as “Jim Crow in a suit + tie,” but she also encouraged big businesses not to boycott the state. After the MLB pulled the All Star game from Georgia, many Republicans blamed misinformation and lies from Abrams and Democratic politicians, though Abrams said she attempted to talk MLB leaders out of relocating the game before the announcement was made.
Unlike in the GOP primary for Senate, it is not as clear which Democrats will join the race for governor should their top-tier candidate choose not to run. State Sen. Jen Jordan (D-Atlanta) would be seen as a potential candidate, but she recently launched a campaign for Attorney General. Businesswoman Sarah Riggs Amico, the 2018 nominee for Lieutenant Governor who waged an unsuccessful U.S. Senate campaign in 2020, may also give the race a look, but she has signaled that she will not be running for any office in 2022.
Another name that may come to mind is former State Sen. Jason Carter, the 2014 nominee for governor and the grandson of former President Jimmy Carter. And depending on how maps look after redistricting, we could see someone like Rep. Lucy McBath (D-Marietta) or Rep. Carolyn Bourdeaux (D-Suwanee) consider running for governor if Abrams decides not to.
Abrams, like Walker, would almost certainly coast to the nomination if she runs. She developed a massive donor base following her narrow loss in 2018 and she makes frequent appearances on cable news shows. And the possibility of electing the first Black female governor in U.S. history would also generate excitement from Black voters. But she also has some disadvantages: Republicans continue to mock her for refusing to concede defeat in 2018, and she hasn’t done herself any favors on that front by seemingly suggesting that she won. During the 2018 campaign, Republicans took issue with her personal finances. She admitted to owing over $50,000 in federal back taxes and more than $170,000 combined in student loans and credit card bills. It’s not difficult to see them attacking her for this again.
In the meantime, Abrams is planning to re-release copies of her romance novels and is continuing her work with Fair Fight. No other Democrats have entered the race for governor so far, though Gov. Kemp will first have to survive a primary challenge before he can focus on his Democratic opponent: former State Rep. Vernon Jones, who was banished from the Democratic Party after endorsing Trump in the 2020 presidential election, is challenging him for the Republican nomination. Trump has not endorsed Jones, but he has made no secret of his growing disdain for Kemp following the 2020 election.
What gives?
It’s understandable why neither Abrams or Walker have announced their campaigns yet. In fact, they really have no reason to announce now. Hypothetically speaking, if both waited until the very last minute to announce their campaigns (the filing deadline is next March), they would still shatter fundraising records. I find it highly unlikely that they wait that long, though. We will likely get an idea of whether or not they will run by the end of the year.
Walker has reportedly told people that he will announce his decision around the “first of the summer.” Abrams has not given a timetable for when she might announce. But if neither candidate ends up running, expect lots of candidates to enter both races. Just think: they have both practically frozen their races despite not officially being candidates. In other words, if they choose to run, they will instantly clear the field. But if they don’t run, lots of candidates will pile into both races like clown cars.