With election day now just five days away, many political observers have been throwing around the dreaded “R” word.
With neither Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock or Republican challenger Herschel Walker polling above 50%, it is likely that we could be looking at another decisive U.S. Senate runoff election in Georgia.
A runoff would be held in December, as the state’s new election law halved the runoff period from nine weeks to four weeks.
This scenario would be nearly identical to 2020, when two Senate runoff elections determined control of the U.S. Senate and the fate of then-President-elect Joe Biden’s legislative agenda.
Runoff elections are required to be held if no candidate finishes with more than 50% of the vote on election night. Georgia is the only state that requires general election runoffs.
Current polling averages have neither candidate polling above the 50% threshold. According to FiveThirtyEight, an average of recent surveys has Sen. Warnock at 46.1%, with Walker at 45.7%.
Warnock’s campaign has even started airing ads warning voters that they might have to return to the polls after Thanksgiving. “Nobody wants that to happen,” he exclaimed.
A Senate runoff election would once again put Georgia in the national spotlight, two years after an election that saw the Peach State send Joe Biden and Kamala Harris to the White House and two Democrats to the U.S. Senate.
Those blockbuster runoff elections became the two most expensive congressional races in American history.
“The race between Republican Sen. David Perdue and Democrat Jon Ossoff is the most expensive Senate contest ever, with the candidates and outside groups spending nearly $470 million through Monday. The special election featuring Sen. Kelly Loeffler and Rev. Raphael Warnock has drawn nearly $363 million, good for the No. 2 spot.”
You can guarantee that another Senate runoff would bring the biggest political names in both parties back to the campaign trail. In 2020, we saw names like former President Barack Obama, South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem, then-Vice President-elect Kamala Harris and U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz make stops in Georgia to campaign with their party’s candidates.
A big question is whether President Biden and former President Donald Trump will return to Georgia. Candidates in both parties have been distancing themselves from the two leaders, who are both facing low approval ratings from Georgia voters.
Trump’s last visit to Georgia was in March, when he held a rally for Republican candidates in Commerce. Reporters who covered the rally said that it was one of the lowest-turnout Trump rallies they have ever covered.
Biden’s last stop was in January, when he and Vice President Harris visited the Atlanta University Center to encourage the Senate to pass a voting rights reform package. His visit was met with frustration and even boycotts by some Black leaders. “We don’t need even more photo ops. We need action,” one said.
But will another Senate runoff in Georgia bring the two leaders off the sidelines? If it were to once again determine control of the Senate, you can be sure that both parties will be pulling out all the stops.