Battle for U.S. House fought on unlikely terrain
How and why the South could decide control of Congress
The battle for control of the U.S. House is being fought on unlikely terrain.
Civil rights lawsuits and mid-decade gerrymanders playing out across the South could decide which party controls Congress in next year’s election.
It’s a remarkable turnaround for a region where racial polarization and national politics have become heavily intertwined.
It is this trend, voting rights lawyers claim, that has enabled white politicians to cement their majorities through election law changes at the expense of their Black counterparts.
But that could soon be coming to an end.
Lawsuits in Georgia, Alabama and other southern states have raised questions about voting maps that leave Black voters at an unfair disadvantage in terms of representation. And we are seeing some states redraw their maps in the middle of the decade to try and maximize their party’s advantage.
With Republicans hanging on to a narrow majority in the House, the developments we are about to take a look at could have far-reaching national implications. Even the smallest of changes could determine which party is in charge on Capitol Hill.
ALABAMA
Alabama is at the heart of this unprecedented redistricting phenomenon.
Despite making up roughly a quarter of the state’s population, Black Alabamians make up a majority in just one — or 14 percent — of the state’s 7 congressional districts. The map was struck down in federal court but it was still used in the 2022 election while state officials appealed the ruling.
Voting rights groups scored an unexpected victory over the summer when the U.S. Supreme Court upheld the lower court’s ruling, preserving a key part of the 1965 Voting Rights Act and instructing Alabama state lawmakers to draw a new map that includes two majority-Black districts instead of one.
The legislature met in a special session to draw a new map, only to again pass a plan with just one majority-Black district. Federal judges quickly threw it out and took matters into their own hands.
The court turned to an outside expert to draw the new map, which creates a second majority-Black district across the state’s Black Belt region. The new lines are all but certain to result in Democrats picking up a seat in Alabama’s congressional contingent, which for years has consisted of six white Republicans and 1 Black Democrat.
LOUISIANA
A similar case is currently unfolding in Louisiana. In 2022, the state’s Republican-dominated legislature passed a new congressional map where Black voters comprised a majority in just one of the state’s 6 districts, even though one-third of the state’s population is African-American.
The state’s Democratic governor, John Bel Edwards, rejected the map but it still became law after his veto was overridden by the legislature. A judge ordered the state to draw a new map, but the Supreme Court blocked the order while they heard the case out of Alabama — allowing the map to go into effect for the 2022 election.
Since ruling against Alabama, the Justices have sent the Louisiana case back to lower courts. A new order this month gives Louisiana lawmakers a January deadline to adopt a new congressional map with an additional majority-Black district, which could result in another Democratic gain in a southern state.
Further complicating things in the Bayou State is a power transition in Baton Rouge: Gov. Edwards is on his way out of office. Gov.-elect Jeff Landry, a Republican who is currently the state’s attorney general, has said that he plans to call the legislature into a special session to address the issue when he takes office. However, state law will not allow the session to begin until at least one week after the governor’s order, which would be after the court’s deadline.
GEORGIA
Lawmakers in the Peach State are set to return to the drawing board at the end of this month after being ordered to redraw the state’s 14 congressional districts.
Competitive statewide races in Georgia began trickling down to the congressional level over the last decade, fueled by Democratic gains in the traditionally Republican Atlanta suburbs and a surging non-white population.
The makeup of the state’s congressional delegation, which at one point comprised of 10 Republicans and four Democrats, yielded an 8-6 Republican advantage by 2020.
But with just a few strokes of their redistricting pens, Republican state lawmakers erased those gains. Voting rights groups sued to block the new map, but like other states, courts allowed it to remain in place for the 2022 election.
Experts warned that Georgia’s map was highly likely to be struck down following the Supreme Court’s ruling in Alabama. A judge ultimately ruled that the map is unconstitutional and is ordering lawmakers to produce a new map that includes an additional majority-Black district in western metro Atlanta, which could put another Republican-held seat at risk.
State officials have appealed the ruling, but they are not seeking a stay — which would block the ruling while the appeals process is unfolding. In other words, Georgia is highly likely to have a new congressional map in the coming weeks.
NORTH CAROLINA
The Tar Heel State is the biggest bright spot for Republicans in the South.
Mid-decade redistricting in North Carolina is hardly anything new: by 2024 the state will have used a different congressional map in each of the last four U.S. elections.
In recent years, liberal state courts stood in the way of ambitious Republicans in Raleigh, who were eager to use redistricting to maximize their gains at both congressional and state levels.
The last redistricting showdown saw the state supreme court block a Republican-crafted map and instead draw one of their own. The court-imposed plan featured 7 Republican-leaning districts, six Democratic-leaning ones, and a highly competitive seat in the Raleigh area.
But the balance of power has since shifted on the state’s high court. The new conservative majority on the bench has reversed the redistricting rulings of the previous court, giving Republican lawmakers the greenlight to concoct new gerrymandered maps.
The Republican-controlled legislature passed a new map last month that is set to transform the state’s congressional makeup from its current 7-7 split among Democrats and Republicans to as lopsided as 11-3 in a closely divided state. Voting rights groups are fighting to overturn the map in federal court, but it is unlikely that these lawsuits will be decided in time for the 2024 election.
SOUTH CAROLINA
The U.S. Supreme Court recently heard a case that could lead to a redrawn map in South Carolina.
Voting rights groups took issue with Black voters in Charleston being placed in a different district to strengthen a Republican-leaning seat, and a lower court has ordered lawmakers to draw a new map.
But the outcome here is not likely to be as immediate. Supreme Court watchers are skeptical that the Justices will side with plaintiffs, and it could be as late as next June when they release an opinion in the case. Courts have generally frowned upon changing voting laws in the run-up to election day.
FLORIDA
The redistricting forecast is rather cloudy in the Sunshine State.
Gov. Ron DeSantis made an unprecedented move in 2022 when he strongarmed one of the biggest gerrymanders of the cycle through the state legislature, inserting himself into a process that is traditionally controlled by lawmakers. The map further expands the GOP’s dominance in what was once a key swing state.
Opponents cried afoul, as the DeSantis-backed plan eliminated a Black-performing district in North Florida. Plaintiffs are suing in both state and federal court to restore the district, but many believe that the case will be decided at the state level.
The case is expected to reach the state supreme court, which comprises mostly of DeSantis appointees.
But plaintiffs are hopeful that the court will uphold the state’s strong protections for minority voters, including a Fair Districts measure that was ratified by voters. Democrats are looking to wrest that North Florida seat back in their column if this case goes their way.
What does this all mean?
Politically speaking, the South hasn’t always been so divided along racial lines. As the Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman reminds us, it wasn’t that long ago when we saw rural white Democrats like Bobby Bright (AL) and Travis Childers (MS) notch impressive wins in the region.
But with racial polarization now heavily tied to voting patterns, it is the contours of district lines that largely determine election outcomes these days.
“That's why it's such a big deal courts are cracking open the lines in Alabama, Louisiana, Georgia and maybe Florida as well,” Wasserman says. “If Democrats run the table on these cases - which is still highly uncertain - it could offset Republicans' gambit in North Carolina.”