As Walker struggles, GOP stands strong in state races
Statewide GOP incumbents on track for re-election
With one week until the big day, Republican Herschel Walker remains in a tight race with Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock in the race for U.S. Senate. Statewide Republican incumbents, meanwhile, are in a much stronger position heading into election day.
A new survey from the University of Georgia, shared on Monday by the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, found Walker and Warnock in a deadlocked race: 45.5% to 45.2%, as most voters have an unfavorable view of the former football star and questions about his trustworthiness continue to mount in light of recent unflattering headlines.
But the poll has encouraging news for Republicans not named Herschel Walker. Georgia Republicans are standing strong as they prepare to defend every statewide constitutional office.
Republican Gov. Brian Kemp holds a 51%-44% lead over Democrat Stacey Abrams. That’s above the magic 50%+1 threshold required to avoid a December runoff. A small but potentially significant number of Kemp voters appear hesitant to support Walker in the race for Senate.
“The poll, conducted by the University of Georgia’s School of Public and International Affairs, indicates that about 6% of Kemp supporters say they’re voting for Warnock and an additional 5% back Oliver.”
You can read more about the poll here.
Walker also continues to struggle with locking up the Republican base. Kemp, who went from a Trump ally to nemesis after refusing to overturn the 2020 election results, has the support of 96% of Republican voters. Walker, despite having the former President’s endorsement, earns just 86%.
Scandals, gaffes and falsehoods have become a pattern in Walker’s campaign. A political insider believes that a less controversial Republican candidate would be giving Warnock a much tougher race.
“Georgia is more Republican down-ballot, but a generic Republican could have done a lot better than Warnock even then,” they said on the condition of anonymity.
Two other Republican incumbents have healthy leads over their Democratic opponents. Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, another frequent target of the former President’s wrath, leads Democrat Bee Nguyen 48% to 38%. And Attorney General Chris Carr holds a 49%-42% lead over Democratic State Sen. Jen Jordan.
Republicans are also in a strong position in the open race for Lieutenant Governor, with State Sen. Burt Jones leading Democratic former prosecutor Charlie Bailey by about 8 percentage points.
Other down-ticket races appear to be very lopsided. Republican candidates for Agriculture Commissioner and Insurance Commissioner have far outpaced their Democratic opponents in fundraising and spending in the final stretch.
“[Tyler Harper] has raised close to $2 million, and he can tap an immense private fortune. And he’s traveled the state aggressively, showing up recently at a GOP Jewish event in Sandy Springs. Many Republicans see him as a likely contender for higher office in 2026.”
The apparent separation between Walker and the state Republicans, particularly Kemp, could be because of their conflicting campaign messages. Kemp has campaigned on Georgia’s thriving economy and making our state the best place “to live, work and raise a family.”
Walker, on the other hand, is striking a more negative tone. He and his allies and Washington have hammered Warnock for endorsing key parts of President Joe Biden’s economic agenda, which they argue is leading to record-high inflation and hurting Georgia families.
Plus, Kemp and Walker’s favorable numbers are practically mirror images of one another. The governor is viewed favorably by roughly 51% of Georgia voters, and unfavorably by 39%. Walker’s favorable rating is at 40%, with his unfavorable at 53%.
Many believed that Kemp’s falling out with Trump would be his downfall, but it might be part of what is fueling his bid for a second term.
“After his landslide primary win, Kemp emerged as a seemingly rare Republican who was ‘free’ of Trump. [The Crystal Ball] wrote at the time that we expected Kemp’s perceived independence to pay electoral dividends — considering his consistent leads in polling, it has, at minimum, not hurt.”
Likewise, Walker’s steadfast allegiance to Trump could be uncomfortable for many split-ticket voters who disapprove of the former President. He is viewed favorably by 42% of Georgians, and unfavorably by 52%.
The Peach State continues to be a battleground at the federal level, but we are just a week away from finding out whether or not that dynamic has trickled down to the state level.